Related Articles
Divergent 6-Month Functional Recovery Trajectories and Predictors after Traumatic Brain Injury: Novel Insights from the COBRIT Study.
J Neurotrauma. 2019 Mar 26;:
Authors: Gardner RC, Cheng J, Ferguson AR, Boylan R, Boscardin WJ, Zafonte RD, Manley GT, Bagiella E, Ansel BM, Novack TA, Friedewald WT, Hesdorffer DC, Timmons S, Jallo J, Eisenberg H, Hart T, Ricker JH, Diaz-Arrastia R, Merchant R, Temkin NR, Melton S, Dikmen S, Okonkwo DO
Abstract
Cross-sectional approaches to outcome assessment may not adequately capture heterogeneity in recovery after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Using latent class mixed models (LCMM), a data-driven analytic that identifies groups of patients with similar trajectories, we identified distinct 6-month functional recovery trajectories in a large cohort (n=1,046) of adults age 18-70 years with complicated mild to severe TBI who participated in the Citicoline Brain Injury Treatment Trial (COBRIT). We used multinomial logistic fixed effect models and backward elimination, forward selection, and forward stepwise selection with several stopping rules to explore baseline predictors of functional recovery trajectory. Based on statistical and clinical considerations, the 7-class model was deemed superior. Visualization of these 7 functional recovery trajectories revealed that each trajectory class started at one of 3 recovery levels at 1-month, which, for ease of reference we labeled groups A-C: Group A. good recovery (2 classes; A1 and A2), Group B. moderate disability (2 classes; B1 and B2), Group C. severe disability (3 classes; C1, C2, and C3). By 6-months, these 3 groups experienced dramatically divergent trajectories: A experienced stable good recovery (A1, n=115) or dramatic decline (A2, n=4); B, rapid complete recovery (B1, n=71) or gradual recovery (B2, n=742); C, dramatic rapid recovery (C1, n=12), no recovery (C2, n=91), or death (C3, n=11). Trajectory class membership was not predicted by citicoline treatment (p=0.57). The models identified demographic, pre-injury, and injury-related predictors of functional recovery trajectory, including: age, race, education, pre-injury employment, pre-injury diabetes, pre-injury psychiatric disorder, site, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), post-traumatic amnesia, TBI mechanism, major extracranial injury, hemoglobin, and acute CT findings. GCS was the most consistently selected predictor across all models. All models also selected at least one demographic or pre-injury medical predictor. LCMM successfully identified dramatically divergent, clinically meaningful 6-month recovery trajectories with utility to inform clinical trial design.
PMID: 30909795 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]